Who Should I Pick For My U.S. Open Pool?

With a little over one week until Shinnecock Hills hosts the US Open Championship, we golf fans, have a lot to be excited about.

Lets quickly review where we hit and where we missed and grade our Master’s 2018 predictions.  https://www.easyofficepools.com/who-should-i-pick-in-my-masters-pool/

A+, Patrick Reed – we correctly identified the winner right and selected him from the 3rd tier! 

B, Bubba and Rory – both finished T-5th.  Considering they were both in the top 10 betting favorites we don’t deserve too much credit! 

F, Alex Noren – Missed cut.  Alex did not hit a single shot over the weekend – OOPS!

Here are top 22 PGA players with the best odds to win this years’ US Open tournament, players with 50/1 odds or better:

Odds to win 2018 U.S. Open (6/14/18)

http://www.vegasinsider.com/golf/story.cfm/story/1918083

Dustin Johnson 9/1
Rory McIlroy 10/1
Jordan Spieth 12/1
Tiger Woods 14/1
Jason Day 15/1
Justin Thomas 15/1
Jon Rahm 18/1
Justin Rose 18/1
Rickie Fowler 18/1
Patrick Reed 22/1
Brooks Koepka 28/1
Hideki Matsuyama 30/1
Phil Mickelson 30/1
Sergio Garcia 30/1
Henrik Stenson 33/1
Branden Grace 40/1
Bubba Watson 45/1
Matt Kuchar 45/1
Paul Casey 45/1
Adam Scott 50/1
Bryson Dechambeau 50/1
Tommy Fleetwood 50/1

For ease of understanding and creation of this article I am going to break the top 22 according to these odds into 3 groups and pick one out of the top 5, one from the next 5, and two from the bottom 12.

Tiger WOODS

I cannot speculate on the 2018 US Open without dedicating a few words to Tiger.  He finished 2nd at Valspar and a T-5th at Arnold’s Tournament before finishing T-32nd at The Masters.  He has not played as well leading up to the US Open (T-55th, T-11th, T-23rd – Wells Fargo, The Players, Memorial Tournament respectively) but I am going to give him a better chance of winning The Masters where I said he was very overrated…

Could he win his 4th US Open? Yes.  Would I pick him as my Tier 1 golfer for this tournament? No.

I believe he is overrated at 14/1, the 4th best bookmaker odds to win are tied directly to his highly decorated resume and popularity among fans who are also the betting public.

Tiger says,“(Shinnecock) played really long” after playing a pair of practice rounds the last week in May: https://www.golfchannel.com/article/golf-central-blog/woods-after-playing-shinnecock-changes-quite-significant/

My Pick from the TOP 5

Smart money would get placed on Rory McIlroy and he is the golfer I am taking out of the ‘top 5’ group.  This is exactly what I said before The Masters and see no reason not to echo that same rhetoric now.

Aside from being cut at The Players, he has returned to form as of late, winning the Arnold Palmer Invite, finishing T-5th at The Masters, 2nd at The BMW, and most recently finishing 8th at The Memorial.  This was highlighted with a 3rd round 64 where Rory displayed spectacular shot making and putting like we saw when he ran away from the field in the 2011 US Open at Congressional, winning by 8 strokes.

If Rory is not driving the ball accurately, I will regret this selection and probably wished I would have gone with long bomber DJ as my selection from this top 5 group.  Shinnecock will be playing long at nearly 7500 yards (as a Par 70).

THE Phil FACTOR

Phil Mickelson is the golfer I would most love to see win this tournament.  Phil has finished 2nd at The US Open a record 6 times but has never won it.  He has won the other 3 Major tournaments (3 Masters, 1 Open & 1 PGA).  30/1 odds may be worth a $10 bet?  Maybe if it was someone else’s $10.

Nevertheless, Phil being relevant on Sunday would not be a total surprise and it would delight many fans to see him complete his career slam at Shinnecock.

THE 2nd TIER – My Pick from the NEXT FIVE

My senses tell me that Rickie Fowler is poised to ‘go low’ and will be in contention on Sunday at Shinnecock Hills.  He still has not won that elusive 1st Major Championship, but certainly has put himself in contention at a bunch of them over the years including this past Masters tournament where he was in the 2nd to last group on Sunday.  Rickie’s best finish at a U.S. Open was a T-2nd in 2014 at Pinehurst #2.  This was the season Rickie finished in the Top 5 at all 4 Major Tournaments, who would have thought we would still be waiting for his first Major victory a quarter way thru the Majors in 2018? Could this be the one?  Rickie is a very accurate longer driver, and this will be essential to scoring well as Shinnecock is very long in length and tight in width.

THE BOTTOM 12 – Longer ODDS

I will give you two names to consider for your US Open pool when making selections of golfers further down the list.  Bryson Dechambeau and Tommy Fleetwood are sitting at 50/1 and I think they are worth a look.  Bryson just won The Memorial and finished 4th at Wells Fargo, T-3rd at RBC, and 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, WOW!   Tommy Fleetwood finished in the Top 20 at The Masters and the Top 10 at The Players which are decent finishes but not the reason I am giving him a look.  Fleetwood’s putting has improved dramatically this year and his ball striking is always pure.  He has an excellent game for the tight fairways at Shinnecock.

Below is an example grouping for an 6 tiered breakdown representing the 2018 US Open Field:

*note, I did not include Tiger Woods on my pick sheet example

 

FINALLY MY PICKS

Tier 1 – Rickie Fowler

Tier 2 – Tommy Fleetwood

Tier 3 – Bryson Dechambeau

Tier 4 – Tony Finau

Tier 5 – Si Woo Kim

Tier 6 – Charles Howell

Who do you have on your Fantasy US Open Pool Golf Squad?

If you aren’t in a pool yet, set one up today and invite your friends to pick against you. Then track the live scoring on our personal leaderboard throughout the tournament!

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