Who Should I Pick In My Masters Pool?

With a little over one week until Augusta hosts the annual competition for the green jacket, we golf fans, have a lot to be excited about.

The Best Odds

Here are top 20 PGA players with the best odds to win this years Masters tournament:

Dustin Johnson 8/1
Rory McIlroy 8/1
Tiger Woods 17/2
Justin Thomas 9/1
Jordan Spieth 12/1
Bubba Watson 14/1
Justin Rose 14/1
Jason Day 16/1
Phil Mickelson 16/1
Jon Rahm 18/1
Rickie Fowler 20/1
Paul Casey 22/1
Sergio Garcia 25/1
Hideki Matsuyama 40/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Tommy Fleetwood 40/1
Alex Noren 45/1
Henrik Stenson 45/1
Louis Oosthuizen 50/1
Tyrrell Hatton 50/1

 

EVERYONE WHO SPECULATED ONE YEAR AGO THAT BOTH TIGER AND PHIL WOULD BE IN THE TOP 10 ODDS TO WIN THE 2018 MASTERS GIVE YOURSELF A BIG PAT ON THE BACK, YOU ARE ONE HECK OF A FORECASTER!

 

For ease of understanding I am going to break the top 20 according to these odds into 3 groups and pick one out of the top 5, one from the next 5, and one from the bottom 10.

Tiger WOODS

The obvious intrigue to this years Masters tournament is Tiger Woods being back and not being hampered by spasms in his back, and has been playing at a very high level.  2017 was mostly missed cuts and withdraws from tournaments in Europe and abroad.  We saw the first optimistic glimpse of the Tiger of old at The Heroes Challenge (PGA event in Albany) in November where he finished 9th. His three most recent tournaments he has had a chance to win heading into the weekend, finishing 12th, 2nd, and 5th.  Tiger himself seemed a little bit surprised by his recent success. I have seen some Masters Pool Tiered formats where Tiger is in the top tier and others where he is in the bottom. I am definitely selecting Tiger if he is in Tier 6 which is typically past Masters Champions and players who are outside the current World top 50.

What tier Tiger is grouped in for your golf pool is the biggest factor for selecting him to your team… or not.

“When I handicap the tournament I have Tiger in the Rickie Fowler odds range at 20/1, there are easily ten guys who have a better shot at winning. He is a bit overrated in my opinion.” – Vegas Bookmaker

My Pick from the TOP 5

Smart money would get placed on Rory McIlroy and he is the golfer I am taking out of the ‘top 5’ group. The last two years have provided winners from foreign soil, why not a third year in a row?  Rory is very motivated to win this tournament (the last remaining to complete his career slam), he believes that Tiger being in this years field makes his chances for winning his first green jacket greater: Don’t take my word for it >>> https://www.express.co.uk/sport/golf/909632/Tiger-Woods-Rory-McIlroy-Masters-2018-Augusta-golf-news-Farmers-Insurance-Open.

The bookmakers believe that McIlroy’s recent tournament victory makes his chances for winning his first green jacket greater. A recent win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational had the bookmakers slash his odds in half down to 8/1 from 16/1.

THE Phil FACTOR

There is a lefty in next group of 5 that ranks #2 (right behind Tiger Woods) in the poll for who golf fans would love to see win his 4th green jacket.  After winning the WGC-Mexico, Phil Mickelson’s odds to win have increased to 16/1 which seems a bit inflated and overreactive to me.  My heart would love to see Phil win another major especially at the ripe age of 47.  I think Tiger’s and Phil’s high odds are a sign of handicappers having respect for what they are capable of doing at Augusta and also knowing that some bettors tendencies are to place their money on what they would like to see happen.. I have made this fatal mistake in the past and recommend that you do not do the same.  Use your sensibilities when predicting outcomes, don’t rely on emotion.  With that said…..

Imagine this dream scenario for the PGA: Tiger and Phil paired up as the last tee time Sunday morning, can someone say highest rated golf event EVER?

THE 2nd TIER – My Pick from the NEXT FIVE

My senses tell me that another lefty has a greater chance to win, and this is the polarizing, yet highly entertaining Bubba Watson.  His ability to creatively shape shots and drive the ball make him a threat at Augusta every year.  And after decimating the field in the Match Play event last weekend, Bubba seems to have his swagger back, to the dismay of some or maybe many…

I shared this fan’s attitude towards Bubba’s success last weekend:

https://www.barstoolsports.com/boston/this-guy-bashing-his-laptop-in-a-fit-of-rage-perfectly-captures-what-its-like-watching-bubba-watson-win-golf-tournaments/?_branch_match_id=493125270860346639

Yikes!!

In most 6 tiered pool formats that I have seen Bubba is in the 2nd flight of golfers, grouped with Phil, Stenson, Day, Noren, etc.  Unless you refuse to pick him because it is something you cannot stomach the thought of watching Bubba winning his 3rd Green Jacket, I would suggest selecting him as a very high value in the 2nd tier of golfers.  Honest and accurate prognosticators suggest that Bubba’s chances of winning are slightly less than Rory, Johnson, and Thomas, this is a no brainer for me. Or maybe a hairbrainer? Time will tell.

MOST INTRIGUING MASTERS EVER??

Many interesting cases can be made for different players in this top 20 and even beyond these names. It is a powerhouse field with a unique blend of heavyweight golfers, elder statesmen who are experiencing recent success once again, along with the many decorated under 30 years of age golfers who have taken the PGA by storm.  Will this be a Schwartzel type year where a no-named newcomer breaks through, or be a year like last year (Sergio Garcia) where an established guy wins his first Masters i.e Rory or Rose, or maybe even Tiger, Phil, or Bubba add to their total, it is truly wide open with star power throughout! This may be the most exciting build up to a Masters Tournament ever!

THE BOTTOM 10 – Longer ODDS

I will give you two names to consider for your Masters pool when making selections of names further down your pick sheet.  Patrick Reed and Alex Noren. I have seen pools where Noren is in tier 3 and Reed is in tier 4 and others where Reed is in the 3rd tier and Noren is in the 2nd. Again where these guys are grouped may be the biggest factor in your selection process.  Noren has been the model of consistency and like Reed he seems to have a great frame of mind for Augusta National, where they are capable of forgetting mistakes very quickly, keeping it moving along, staying patiently aggressive.  Noren recently was in the semi-finals of the Match Play event which indicates that his game is very strong.  Reed finished 2nd at Valspar and 7th at the Arnold Palmer, he is consistently playing at a high level going into Masters week.  Either one of these two would be a great selection.

Finally, my PICKS

Below is an example grouping for an 8 tiered breakdown (in photo above) representing the 2018 Masters Field, and my picks for the same:

Tier 1 – Rory McIlroy

Tier 2 – Bubba Watson

Tier 3 – Patrick Reed

Tier 4 – Matthew Fitzpatrick

Tier 5 – Thomas Pieters

Tier 6 – Zach Johnson

Tier 7 – Billy Horschel

Tier 8 – Fred Couples

Who do you have on your Fantasy Masters Pool Golf Squad?

 

Create your Pool 2Day!

https://www.easyofficepools.com/personalized-pga-fantasy-golf-pools/

Not sure how you want to set up your Masters Pool? Here are some great options for your 2018 Masters Pool!
https://www.easyofficepools.com/4-simple-masters-pool-ideas-for-2013/

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